no priors.

Investing research built on structured analysis, not narratives. Deep dives across the AI value chain, software, power, metals, and options.

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SoftwareFIG

Figma: The $65 Billion Haircut That Created the Best Risk/Reward in SaaS

Figma lost 87% of its market cap in eight months while growing revenue 41% and posting 136% net dollar retention. The market is pricing in extinction. The numbers say otherwise.

·11 min·bull
PowerWLDN

Willdan Group: The Grid's Consulting Layer Is Printing Cash

Willdan Group grew net revenue 23% and expanded EBITDA margins above 20% for the first time in FY2025, generating $71 million in free cash flow. At 16x forward earnings with a net cash balance sheet, this picks-and-shovels play on electrification and data center load growth is still mispriced.

·10 min·bull
PowerPOWL

Powell Industries: The $6 Billion Switchgear Company Sitting at the Center of Three Supercycles

Powell Industries builds custom switchgear for the grid, LNG terminals, and data centers. Three years ago it was a sleepy oil-field supplier at 8x earnings. Today it sits on a record $1.6 billion backlog with zero debt and 29% gross margins. The valuation at 34x is real, but the order book says the growth is too.

·10 min·bull
SoftwareDDOG

Datadog: The Observability Tax on Every AI Workload

Datadog generated $3.43 billion in FY2025 revenue, grew bookings 37%, and landed two $100M+ deals. The stock is down 43% from its high. AI does not replace observability. It multiplies it.

·10 min·bull
Options

why no priors

A uniform prior is flat. A posterior, after evidence, is sharpened. This is a public notebook about doing that work out loud.

·4 min
Options

the eight dimensions

The scoring engine reduces every ticker to eight numbers. Here is what each of them measures and how it earned its weight.

·12 min
Options

replacing the regime score

The original regime score had zero variance over any 180-day window. The replacement hits r = 0.439 against forward returns. Here is how it happened.

·9 min