writing.
Scan recaps, methodology deep dives, and postmortems. A running log of what the system sees, what it gets right, and — especially — what it gets wrong.
Figma: The $65 Billion Haircut That Created the Best Risk/Reward in SaaS
Figma lost 87% of its market cap in eight months while growing revenue 41% and posting 136% net dollar retention. The market is pricing in extinction. The numbers say otherwise.
Willdan Group: The Grid's Consulting Layer Is Printing Cash
Willdan Group grew net revenue 23% and expanded EBITDA margins above 20% for the first time in FY2025, generating $71 million in free cash flow. At 16x forward earnings with a net cash balance sheet, this picks-and-shovels play on electrification and data center load growth is still mispriced.
Powell Industries: The $6 Billion Switchgear Company Sitting at the Center of Three Supercycles
Powell Industries builds custom switchgear for the grid, LNG terminals, and data centers. Three years ago it was a sleepy oil-field supplier at 8x earnings. Today it sits on a record $1.6 billion backlog with zero debt and 29% gross margins. The valuation at 34x is real, but the order book says the growth is too.
Datadog: The Observability Tax on Every AI Workload
Datadog generated $3.43 billion in FY2025 revenue, grew bookings 37%, and landed two $100M+ deals. The stock is down 43% from its high. AI does not replace observability. It multiplies it.
why no priors
A uniform prior is flat. A posterior, after evidence, is sharpened. This is a public notebook about doing that work out loud.
the eight dimensions
The scoring engine reduces every ticker to eight numbers. Here is what each of them measures and how it earned its weight.
replacing the regime score
The original regime score had zero variance over any 180-day window. The replacement hits r = 0.439 against forward returns. Here is how it happened.